Read this if you are in the senior living industry.
Happy New Year! While it may be a new calendar year, the uncertainties facing senior living facilities are still the same, and the question remains: When will the Public Health Emergency end, and how will it impact operations? Federal and state relief programs ended in 2022, and facilities are trying to find ways to fund operations as they face low occupancy levels. Inflation was at 7.1% in November and staffing remains a significant challenge. So, what can the industry expect for 2023?
Occupancy
Through the pandemic, occupancy losses were greater in nursing facilities than in assisted living (AL) and independent living (IL) facilities. This trend of care shifting away from nursing facilities had started before the onset of the pandemic. From 2018-2020, nursing facility volume decreased by over 5% while AL facilities occupancy increased by 1.1%.
Nursing facility occupancy nationwide was 80.2% in January of 2020 and declined to as low as 67.5% in January 2021. In 2022, nursing facility occupancy began to recover. As of December 18, 2022, nationwide occupancy had rebounded to 75.8%.
The assisted living and independent living markets were certainly impacted by the pandemic but not to the extent of the nursing facilities. AL and IL occupancy was reported at 80.9% in March 2021, a record low occupancy for the industry. Through the third quarter of 2022, NIC reported IL occupancy at 84.7%, which was up from 83.8% in the second quarter of 2022. AL occupancy was at 79.7%. in the third quarter of 2022.
Providers are starting to see some positive signs with occupancy, but are reporting the recovery has been slowed by staffing shortages.
Cost of capital
The lending market is tightening for senior living providers and occupancy issues are negatively impacting facilities bottom lines. In addition, there has been significant consolidation in the banking industry. As a result, interest and related financing costs have risen. For those facilities that aren’t able to sustain their bottom lines and are failing financial covenants, lenders are being less lenient on waivers and in some cases, lenders are imposing default lending rates.
Ziegler reports in their Winter 2022 report the lending market for senior housing is beginning to pick up. The majority of the lenders surveyed were regional banks, and reported they are offering both fixed and floating rate loans. Lenders are also reporting an increased scrutiny on labor costs coupled with looking at a facility’s ability to increase occupancy.
Despite these challenges, analysts are still optimistic for 2023 as inflation seems to be tapering, which will hopefully lead to a stabilization of interest rates.
Staffing
Changes to five-star rating
In July 2022, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) modified the five-star rating to include Registered Nurse (RN) and administrator turnover. The new staffing rating adds new measures, including total nurse staffing hours per resident day on the weekends, the percentage of turnover for total nursing staff and RNs, and the number of administrators who have left the nursing home over a 12-month period.
Short-term this could have a negative impact on facilities ratings as they are still struggling to recruit and retain nursing staff. The American Healthcare Association has performed an analysis, and on a nationwide basis these changes resulted in the number of one-star staffed facilities rising from 17.71% to 30.89%, and the percentage of one-star overall facilities increasing from 17.70% to 22.08%.
Staffing shortages
Much like the occupancy trend, nursing facilities faced staffing issues even before the pandemic. From 2018 to 2020, the average number of full-time employees dropped at a higher rate, 37.1%, than admissions, 15.7%. Data from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics and CMS Payroll Based Journal reporting shows nursing facilities lost 14.5% of their employees from 2019-2021 and assisted living facilities lost 7.7% over the same time period. This unprecedented loss of employment across the industry is leading to burnout and will contribute to future turnover.
This loss of full-time employees has created a ripple effect across the healthcare sector. Nursing facilities are unable to fully staff beds and have had to decline new admissions. This is causing strain on hospital systems as they are unable to place patients in post-acute facilities, creating a back log in hospitals and driving up the cost of care.
While the industry continues to experience challenges recruiting and retaining employees, the labor market is starting to swing in the favor of providers. Some healthcare sectors have recovered to pre-pandemic staffing levels. Providers are also starting to report lower utilization of contract labor.
While the industry continues to experience challenges recruiting and retaining employees, the labor market is starting to swing in the favor of providers.
Minimum staffing requirement
CMS is expected to propose a new minimum staffing rule by early spring 2023. Federal law currently requires Medicare and Medicaid certified nursing homes provide 24-hour licensed nursing services, which are “sufficient to meet nursing needs of their residents”. CMS issued a request for information (RFI) as part of the Fiscal Year 2023 Skilled Nursing Facility Prospective Payment System Proposed Rule. CMS received over 3,000 comments with differing points of view but prevailing themes from patient advocacy groups regarded care of residents, factors impacting facilities' ability to recruit and retain staff, differing Medicaid reimbursement models, and the cost of implementing a minimum staffing requirement. In addition to the RFI, CMS launched a study that includes analysis of historical data and site visits to 75 nursing homes.
In a study conducted by the American Healthcare Association, it is estimated an additional 58,000 to 191,000 FTEs will be needed (at a cost of approximately $11.3 billion) to meet the previously recommended 4.1 hours per patient day minimum staffing requirements.
One potential consequence of the minimum staffing requirement is higher utilization of agency staffing. Nursing facilities saw a 14.5% decrease in staffing through the pandemic and are still struggling to recruit and retain full-time staff. To meet the minimum staffing requirements, providers may need to fill open positions with temporary staffing.
Provider Relief Funds (PRF)
Don’t forget if you received PRF funds in excess of $10,000 between July 1 and December 31, 2021, Phase 4 reporting period opened January 1, 2023, and will close March 31, 2023.
Many of the changes to the industry brought on by the pandemic are likely to remain. Facilities who are putting a focus on their staff and working to create a positive work environment are likely to keep employees for longer.
While there are many challenges in the current environment, they were made to be met, and we are here to help. If you have any questions or would like to talk about your specific needs, please contact our senior living team. Wishing you a successful 2023.