Read this if you are in the senior living industry.
At our recent annual Senior Living Summit, guest speakers, senior living experts, and attendees discussed many topics, updates, and trends in senior living and for the year ahead. Here are highlights from the summit and some considerations for 2024.
National overview
Occupancy trends
The senior living industry has witnessed a gradual and sustainable improvement in occupancy throughout 2022 and 2023. During the pandemic, nursing facilities experienced a significant decline in occupancy, at one point dropping to as low as 67.5%. Fast forward to December, 2023, and the industry has shown remarkable resilience, with overall occupancy averaging 83.1%.
Assisted living facilities displayed an average occupancy rate of 83.4% in December, 2023. This stands in stark contrast to the record low occupancy of approximately 74% witnessed during the throes of the pandemic. The notable recovery in assisted living occupancy indicates a positive shift, reflecting increased confidence in the safety of residents in these facilities.
Similarly, independent living facilities have demonstrated a robust rebound, reaching an occupancy rate of 86.8% in 2023. This is nearly a 4% increase in occupancy since 2021. The resurgence in independent living occupancy emphasizes a growing preference among seniors for communities that offer autonomy while providing a supportive and engaging environment.
These positive trends collectively signify the industry's ability to adapt and recover from the challenges posed by the pandemic. The continuous improvements in occupancy rates underscore the resilience and dedication of senior living facilities in meeting the evolving needs of seniors and restoring confidence among residents and their families.
Demographic evolution and the silver tsunami
As the United States undergoes a demographic shift, the US Census projects a significant milestone: by 2034, older adults (those aged 65 and over) are anticipated to outnumber children for the first time in US history. This impending demographic phenomenon has been coined the silver tsunami, reflecting the rapid growth and increased longevity of the elderly population. However, the challenges associated with this shift extend beyond sheer numbers, particularly concerning the availability of caregivers for the aging population.
The caregiver support ratio, as calculated by the US Census, involves assessing the ratio of individuals aged 45-64 to those aged 80 and over. In 2020, this ratio stood at 6.31, indicating a relatively favorable balance between potential caregivers and the elderly. However, projections paint a concerning picture for the future. By the year 2060, the caregiver support ratio is expected to decline significantly to 2.96. This decline raises critical questions about the sustainability of caregiving resources and the capacity of the healthcare system to meet the increasing demands associated with an aging population.
As the silver tsunami approaches, the pressing concern is who will care for the elderly as their numbers surge and the number of caregivers declines. Addressing this challenge requires a comprehensive approach, involving policy changes, investment in caregiver training and support programs, and innovations in healthcare delivery. Proactive measures are essential to ensure that the evolving demographic landscape aligns with a sustainable and compassionate system capable of providing adequate care and support for the elderly in the years to come.
Additionally, there may be a need to explore and reevaluate the required caregiver ratio. Shifting the threshold to a lower ratio could become a crucial aspect of adapting to the changing demographics and making sure the aging population receives the necessary care without overwhelming the available caregiving resources. Policymakers and healthcare stakeholders must collaboratively work towards solutions that anticipate and accommodate the evolving needs of an aging society.
Medicare, Medicare Advantage, and Medicaid trends
The trends in Medicaid and Medicare utilization within assisted living facilities reflect a notable shift towards home and community-based care over the years. Since 1996, when a mere 18% of total Medicaid expenditures were allocated for home and community-based care, the percentage has soared to 59% in 2019 (95 billion dollars). In contrast, the share of Medicaid spending on institutional care decreased from 82% in 1996 to 41% in 2019, reflecting a significant transition in care preferences. Acknowledging this shift, 40 states have committed to expanding home and community-based care in 2022, signaling a collective effort to align Medicaid services with the evolving needs and preferences of beneficiaries.
Furthermore, the trajectory of Medicare trends in senior living facilities highlights a growing preference for Medicare Advantage Plans. In 2007, 19% of Medicare beneficiaries were enrolled in a Medicare Advantage Plan, a percentage that rose to 32% in 2015 and 51% in 2023. Additionally, Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) have become integral in providing care for nearly 20% of all Medicare patients, including almost a third of those under traditional Medicare plans. These trends reflect a broader movement towards flexibility and patient-centered care models within both Medicaid and Medicare, emphasizing the importance of community-based services and the increasing popularity of Medicare Advantage Plans.
Senior living and cybersecurity
The security landscape for senior living organizations is increasingly complex and poses significant risks that demand attention. As technology becomes more integrated into daily life, senior living homes have become attractive targets for hackers due to the abundance of valuable personal information on their systems and limited resources to invest in robust cybersecurity measures. The average patient room, equipped with 10-15 connected devices, serves as a potential gateway for cyber threats, highlighting the vulnerability of these facilities to data breaches.
The use of technology among seniors has surged, with over 70% utilizing tablets and smartphones, and a growing demand for technology and Wi-Fi in their living spaces. While beneficial for enhancing the quality of life through wearable devices and smart home features, this increased connectivity also amplifies the risk of cyber threats.
It is crucial to recognize that protecting senior living organizations extends beyond physical health considerations. Educating residents about scams and fraud, along with imparting basic IT security concepts, is just as critical. Imposter scams, including those impersonating IRS or Social Security officials, as well as fraudulent activities on online dating sites, rank as the top risks. Seniors represent the most vulnerable targets, reflected by the billions lost annually to scams, making it imperative for senior living facilities to actively engage in educating residents about potential threats.
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) offers invaluable resources for educating both staff and residents on recognizing and mitigating the risks associated with scams and cybersecurity threats. In an era where technology plays a significant role in senior living, a comprehensive approach that addresses both physical and digital well-being is essential to create a secure and supportive environment for residents.
If you have questions about 2024 senior living trends or your specific situation, please don't hesitate to contact our Senior Living team. We're here to help.